On June 19, the Fed will respond with dot Plot to the question whether it will take a step on interest rate cuts in 2019. Before the critical decision, we follow the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data to monitor the inflation dynamics for the US economy. Core CPI data is important for EURUSD in this respect. Market expectation was 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.1% on a yearly basis. The EURUSD parity continues to look positive before critical CPI data.
Main Scenario: The Alligator indicator and the rising trend line for the EURUSD parity support the positive outlook. If the parity remains above the 1.1287 – 1.1315 zone, it may wish to continue its positive outlook. With this idea, rising towards barriers 1,1360 and 1,1391 can be monitored. In such an the rise, it may want to answer the question whether in-trend correction occurs in the region 1.1391 – 1.1433.
Alternative scenario: In order to end the positive expectation for EURUSD parity and to have a negative outlook in the foreground, it should be noted that permanent movements are needed under the 1.1287 – 1.1315 zone. However, with this condition, new pricing towards 1.1215 and 1.1172 levels can be followed, especially at 1.1251.
Pivot: 1,1287 – 1,1315
Support: 1,1315 – 1,1287 – 1,1251
Resistance: 1,1360 – 1,1391 – 1,1433