As a surprise, the ECB President Draghi gave a green light to the interest rate cut in a process we are looking for if the Fed would signal interest rate cuts for 2019. While the EURUSD parity follows a negative outlook with Draghi, we see that the Fed has stepped forward in the ECB & Fed struggle with the Fed signaling an interest rate cut and that the EURUSD parity has taken important steps in positive pricing behavior.
Main Scenario: EURUSD parity continues its positive outlook on the 1.1323 – 1.1347 region. With this idea, it can continue to move towards 1.1433 and 1.1475 resistance points, especially 1.1391. In this process, movements based on the 1.1475 / 1.1500 level are important in terms of the answer to the question whether the expectation of intra-trend response sales will take place on our agenda.
Alternative Scenario: It should be kept in mind that permanent movements under the region 1.1323 – 1.1347 are needed to end the positive expectation for the EURUSD parity and a negative outlook to take precedence. However, with this condition, new pricing can be tracked towards 1.1258 and 1.1231 support points, especially 1.1292. In this process, movements under the zone 1,1170 – 1,1204 may strengthen the negative outlook further. Otherwise, pricing may be monitored between 1.12 – 1.15 for a while.
Pivot: 1,1323 – 1,1347
Support: 1,1347 – 1,1323 – 1,1292
Resistance: 1,1391 – 1,1433 – 1,1475