The EURUSD parity, which limits the positive pricing behavior to 1.1262 because of the dollar index’s continued positive pricing behavior, continues where trend pricing behavior remains. With this in mind, the exchange rate, which provides a further strengthening of the current pressure by falling below the level of 1.1183, may be included in the pricing behavior towards the 1.1045 or 1.10 level which we will explain as a critical region in the new period. What should be considered in the flow of news that this idea will take place quickly, especially the Manufacturing Purchasing Index (Manufacturing PMI), which will come from France, Germany and the Euro region, is the European Parliament Election process and FOMC Member Barkin, Bostic, Daly and Kaplan’s speeches are included.
Main scenario: if the EURUSD downward trend remains below the 1.1183 barrier, it may want to continue where it remains negative treds since March 21, 2019. With this notion, trend rally can be followed towards 1.1125 and 1.1085 support points. In particular, movements below 1.1125 may strengthen the selling pressure against Channel lower 1.1045 and 1.1010 that will explain it as a critical region. Otherwise, a straight recovery to the 1,1183 barrier can be observed.
Alternative scenario: To end the negative trend view for EURUSD parity, permanent movements on the 1,1183 barrier are needed. In the case of a trend change, a positive outlook can be followed towards the 1.1262 and 1.1325 barrier, in particular 1.1225, and if such a change occurs, the peak level March 21,2019 may accelerate upward towards 1.1446 resistance point.
Information: relative vigor index indicator is in the process of decision because the lines in the indicator are located on each other. For this reason, movements outside the 1.1803 – 1.1125 levels should be followed for clearer movements against EURUSD parity. When technically negative expectations are one step ahead, a negative breakdown will remain on the agenda.
Support: 1,1125 – 1,1085 – 1,1045
Resistance: 1,1183 – 1,1225 – 1,1262