On Friday, July 05, we saw significant sales pressure on the EURUSD parity after significant US data such as Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. EURUSD, which felt the pressure clear by breaking the 1.1268 level downward, strengthened its current negative outlook by sagging below the 1.1235 level, the lower point of the upward trend, and reached 1,1205 level with the corresponding pressure. Due to the negative pressure experienced in EURUSD parity with the US data, it may also wish to continue the downward movement effect in the new period. In today’s news, which will affect the EUR USD parity, German Industrial Production and German Trade Balance data may have an impact on the Euro.
Main Scenario: EURUSD may want to continue its negative outlook below the 1.1296 and 1.1235 levels. If the parity continues the sales pressure, the 1,1205 and 1,1180 levels are our short-term target, but the downward break of the 1,1180 level could accelerate the sales pressure towards the 1,1120 level. If it stays above 1.1180, it can create a congested course between 1.1180 and 1.1235.
Alternative scenario: In order to end our negative expectation for EURUSD parity and for buyers to play an active role, 1.1235 resistance points must be passed first and then 1.1296 resistance points must be passed. Receivers may be effective at 1.1323 and 1.1357 levels in such a change and towards 1.1411 peak if 1.1357 is passed.
Support: 1,1205 – 1,1180 – 1,1150
Resistance: 1,1235 – 1,1268 – 1,1296