We are an important week for GBPUSD parity. Decisions from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday may provide a more effective outlook on pricing behavior.
In the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes, especially the Fed’s interest rate stance, is important to answer whether the idea of reaction in the negative trend in the GBPUSD parity is on the agenda. In addition, BoE is not expected to make any change in its policy since the Brexit factor is on the agenda.
The GBPUSD parity maintained negative pricing behavior up to 1.2510 before critical central bank meetings. Technically, since May 13, the main negative trend continues below 1.2760, a remarkable point of resistance. The answer to the question of whether there is a reaction to this region can be followed by the Alligator indicator, which goes through the 1,2605 level.
Main Scenario: If the GBPUSD parity remains below the 1,2605 barrier, it may want to continue its negative outlook. With this idea, the withdrawal towards the 1.2510 and 1.2470 supports can be followed. Permanent movements, especially below 1.2470, may allow further downward pressure to be strengthened starting at 1.2760. Otherwise, reactions towards the 1,2605 barrier may be monitored.
Alternative scenario: The 1.2605 level must be exceeded in order to strengthen the idea of buying a response to the GBPUSD parity. 1.2680 and 1.2715 levels, especially 1.2645, are the points of resistance that should be followed in the possible pricing behavior. However, even if such an rising is followed, it should be noted that the main trend is negative below the 1.2760 exponential moving average of 200 days.
Support: 1,2510 – 1,2465 – 1,2420
Resistance: 1,2560 – 1,2605 – 1,2645