Main Scenario: As long as it remains below 1.2900 level, our main expectation is NEGATIVE!
In addition, the downside of the 1.2695 level could further strengthen the current main scenario.
Target Expectation: 1,2790 – 1,2745 – 1,2695 – 1,2640
Considerations Supporting The Scenario: The lines in the alligator indicator, the fact that it is moving in a resistance position above the current price and theoretically creating a SELL signal, reinforce our negative expectation.
Alternative Scenario: If the 4-hour close above 1.2900 is reached, the alternative expectation is POSITIVE!
Alternative Target Expectation: 1,2955 – 1,3000 – 1,3050 – 1,3100
MOST IMPORTANT NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Monday, October 28
- The Chinese Stock Exchange is closed due to the national holiday
- Speech by Draghi, Governor of the European Central Bank (ECB), M3 Money Source from the Euro Zone
- Speech by MPC Member Tenreyro from the UK
- Trade Balance of Goods from USA
Tuesday, October 29
- Turkish Stock Exchange Closed Due To Republic Day
- Speech by President Lowe ofthe Central Bank of Australia (RBA)
- Speech by Weidmann, Chairman of the Bank of Germany
- S & P / CS Housing Price Index Compound, Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence, Suspended House Sales and Weekly Crude Oil Stocks of the American Petroleum Institute from USA
Wednesday, October 30
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) from Australia
- Economic Confidence Index from Turkey
- Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Euro Area
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Crude Oil Stocks and Gasoline Stocks from USA
- Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, Interest Rate Decision and Speech by President Powell
Thursday, October 31
- Interest Rate Decision and (BoJ) Chairman Kuroda Speech from Japan
- CBRT Inflation Report and monetary policy meeting summary from Turkey
- Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from China
- From Turkey Trade Balance (Sep)
- Euro Area Consumer Price Index, Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
- Core Personal Consumption Expenses Price List, Unemployment Claims Applications, Personal Income and Expenditure, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and Natural Gas Stocks from USA
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Canada
Friday, November 01
- Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from China (Oct)
- Manufacturing PMI (Oct) from Turkey
- Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (Oct) from UK
- Non-Farm Employment, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, Manufacturing and ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index from USA
- FOMC Members Williams’s Clarida’s and Quarles’s Speech
- Fitch upgraded Turkey’s Note Review from Turkey
THE MOST IMPORTANT DAY OF THE WEEK and ASSETS:
For the Forex market, all other days except Monday and Tuesday are of high importance. The most remarkable economic calendar data of the week is undoubtedly the result of the FOMC meeting, CBRT Inflation Report Presentation and Non-Farm Employment data from the USA.
• Taking into account the current news flows on Monday, GBPUSD may draw attention compared to other assets.
• Taking into account the current news feeds on Tuesday, EURUSD may draw attention compared to other assets.
- Considering the current news feed on Wednesday, EURUSD, USDCAD and GOLD may attract attention compared to other assets.
- Considering the current news feeds on Thursday, USDJPY and USDTRY may draw attention compared to other assets.
- Considering the current news flows on Friday, EURUSD, USDJPY, GOLD and USDTRY may draw attention compared to other assets.