The pound depreciated with high data such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Manufacturing Production under expectations. Therefore, the data allowed the GBPUSD parity to fall below the 1.2715 – 1.2680 zone and the expectation turned negative. The parity, which regressed to 1.2645 support point, is looking for an answer to the question of whether this view can continue today. In addition to the high-level data from yesterday’s UK, the most important news of the day will be coming from the UK, which may accelerate the movement of the GBPUSD parity. Average Earnings Index data should be followed closely from this point of view. Given that the market expectation is 2.9%, the previous result is 3.2% and we can say that there is a negative expectation. In addition, we will reach the results of PPI and Core PPI data from the USA within the data calendar during the day. Therefore, the results of both US and UK data are important for the answer to the question of whether GBPUSD will support the negative outlook.
Main Scenario: The region 1.2715 – 1.2680, representing Alligator indicator lines, is important for the GBPUSD parity. If the parity remains below this zone, it may want to continue its negative Outlook. With this idea, withdrawals towards the support of 1,2645 and 1,2605 can be followed. In particular, pricing below 1.2645 may provide the targeting of last bottom 1.2560 level. Otherwise, reactions towards the region of 1,2715 – 1,2680 can be followed.
Alternative Scenario: It should be kept in mind that permanent movements over 1.2715 – 1.2680 region are needed for the negative expectation of GBPUSD parity to be ended and a positive outlook to be in the foreground. However, with this condition, the new pricing towards 1.22815 and 1.22865 levels can be followed.
Pivot: 1,2680 – 1,2715
Support: 1,2645 – 1,2605 – 1,2560
Resistance: 1,2715 – 1,2760 – 1,2815