Main Scenario: As long as it remains below 1.3226 level, our main expectation is NEGATIVE!
In addition, the downward break in the 1.3017 – 1.3043 region may further strengthen our negative expectations.
Target Expectation: 1,3017 – 1,2950 – 1,2890
Considerations Supporting The Scenario: In the Relative Vigor Index indicator, the SELL signal continues and in addition, the pricing for trend change continues after the positive channel ends.
Alternative Scenario: The alternative expectation is POSITIVE in case of 4-hour closing above 1.3226 level!
Alternative Target Expectation: 1,3291 – 1,3356 – 1,3435
MOST IMPORTANT NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Tuesday, October 22
- Turkey & Russia: Putin’s conversation with Erdogan,
- Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales and Bank of Canada (BoC) overview survey from Canada,
- Current home sales and American Petroleum Institute weekly crude oil stocks from US,
Wednesday, October 23
- Trade Balance From New Zealand,
- Consumer confidence in Turkey,
- Wholesale Sales From Canada,
- Housing Price Index, Crude Oil Stocks and Gasoline Stocks from US,
Thursday, October 24
- Leading Service and Leading Manufacturing PMI from France,
- Leading Service and LeadingManufacturing PMI from Germany,
- Leading Service and Leading Manufacturing PMI from Euro Zone,
- Interest Rate Decision from Turkey,
- Interest Rate Decision from the European Central Bank and Speech by ECB President Draghi,
- Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims, Leading Service PMI, Leading Manufacturing PMI, New Home Sales and Natural Gas Stocks from US,
Friday, October 25
- Capacity Utilization Rate and Manufacturing Confidence from Turkey,
- Germany IFO Business Climate Index from Euro Zone,
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Baker Hughes Total Drilling Well from USA,
THE MOST IMPORTANT DAY OF THE WEEK and ASSETS:
The most important day of the week for the Forex market is Monday and Thursday. The most remarkable economic calendar data of the week is undoubtedly the Brexit Vote, Canadian elections and decisions of central banks such as the CBRT – ECB.
- Considering the current news feeds on Tuesday, USDTRY and USDCAD may attract attention compared to other assets.
- Considering the current news feed on Wednesday, USDTRY and USDCAD may draw attention compared to other assets.
- Taking into account the current news feeds on Thursday, EURUSD and USDTRY may draw attention compared to other assets.
- Given the current news flows on Friday, GOLD and USDTRY may draw attention compared to other assets.