On Friday, July 05, the upward rising in the USDJPY parity were noted attention, along with key US data such as Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate. In particular, expectations that these rising have ended the negative trend, which started at 112.22, make the short-term outlook change positively. The USDJPY parity, which we observe as buyers are more eager due to the Dollar’s tendency to strengthen against the Yen, may strengthen the expectation for an rising towards 111.49 for the new period. In response to the question of whether USDJPY parity on a short-term basis can continue positive pricing behavior, it is important that FOMC members Member and Quarles talk with Fed Chairman Powell.
Main Scenario: The USDJPY parity may wish to continue its positive outlook over the 107.80 – 108.15 region. In the event of continued parity buying pressure, 109.00, 109.26 and 109.70 levels are our short-term target, but moving up to 109.26 level may accelerate the buying pressure towards 110.33 level. In case of pressure at 109.26, a cramped course can be observed between 109.26 – 107.80.
Alternative scenario: For USDJPY parity to end our positive expectation and for sellers to play an active role, the 107.80 – 108.15 zone needs to be broken down. In such a change, sellers may be influenced to the levels of 107.40 and 107.00, and downstream of the 107.00 support point to the 106.45 support point.
Pivot: 107,80 – 108,15
Support: 108,60 – 108,15 – 107,80 – 107,40
Resistance: 109,00 – 109,26 – 109,70 – 110,07