After the USDJPY ended its upward trend on May 06, it formed a significant pricing behavior in negative outlook. The parity, which dropped to 107.85 with the trend change following the break of 110.85, tried to recover after the recent fall, but the negative trend expectation continues.
Main scenario: USDJPY may want to continue the negative pricing behavior below 109,12 – 109,70, which is the upper point of the downward trend. With this in mind, the trend rally can be followed towards the support points of 106,750 and 106,00, especially in the 107.85 – 107.50 region. In particular, persistent movements under the 107.85 – 107.50 zone may further strengthen the negative outlook and anticipate possible withdrawal towards the 104.72 level tested on January 03. Otherwise, it may want to approach the 109,12 – 109,70 zone with intra-trend reactions. In this process, the possible response levels before the 109,12 – 109,70 region were recorded as 106,58.
Alternative Scenario: In order to end the negative expectations for USDJPY parity and the positive outlook to be in the forefront, permanent movements over the 109,12 – 109,70 zone are needed. In case of a trend change, a positive outlook can be followed towards 110,88 and 111,49 barrier, especially 110,23. In such pricing behavior, permanent movements over the region of 111,49 – 112,22 may wish to provide confirmation in addition to the current return.
Pivot: 109,12 – 109,70
Support: 107,85 – 107,50 – 106,75 – 106,00
Resistance: 108,58 – 109,12 – 109,70 – 110,23