Main Scenario: Our main expectation is NEGATIVE as long as it stays below 108.00 – 108.28 level.
In addition, movements below 107.55 may further strengthen our expectation.
Target Expectation: 107,78 – 107,55 – 107,33
Considerations Supporting The Scenario: The downward break of the upward trend line of the USDJPY parity and the change of the color of the cloud to purple in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator gives support to our negative expectation of parity.
Alternative Scenario: In the case of 1-hour closing above 108.00 – 108.28 zone, our alternative expectation is POSITIVE!
Alternative Target Expectation: 108,47 – 108,70 – 108,92
MOST IMPORTANT NEWS OF THE WEEK:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) from Switzerland,
- Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from UK,
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks from US,
- Speech by FOMC Member Williams,
- Consumer Price Index from Turkey (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI),
- Service Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from Germany,
- Service Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), producer price index (PPI) and retail sales from the eurozone,
- Service Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and speech by MPC member Tenreyro from UK,
- Ongoing Unemployment Insurance Applications, Unemployment Claims Applications, Service Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from US,
- Speech by RBA Vice President Ellis from Australia,
- Non-Farm Employment, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Hourly Income and Unemployment Rate and Trade Balance from US,
- Trade Balance from Canada,
- Speech by FOMC Member Rosengren, George and Clarida,
- Speech by Fed Chairman Powell
THE MOST IMPORTANT DAY OF THE WEEK and ASSETS:
Almost every day of the week for the Forex market is important because of the economic calendar data density. Monday and Wednesday are the quietest times compared to other days of the week. Although it is more calendar-intensive especially on Tuesday and Thursday, the main focus of global markets will be Non-Farm Employment and Average Hourly Earnings data on Friday.
Let’s come after the most important days of the week to the most important assets of the week …
- Considering the current news feed on Wednesday, the USDJPY and USDCHF may draw attention compared to other assets.
- Considering the current news feeds on Thursday, USDTRY, EURUSD and GBPUSD may attract attention compared to other assets.
- Taking into account the current news flows on Friday, EURUSD, USDJPY and GOLD may draw attention compared to other assets.