The USDJPY parity, which broke the 110.85 level and ended the upward trend outlook, decline to 107.85 level with the trend change. Following this decline, the parity, which tries to adapt to the new negative outlook and continues its in-channel pricing behavior, creates a pricing outlook in a partially recovering trend, while the negative trend outlook remains up to date.
Main scenario: USDJPY may want to continue the negative pricing behavior below 109,12 – 109,70, which is the upper point of the downward trend. With this in mind, withdrawal towards 107,85 – 107,50 region can be followed. In particular, persistent movements under the 107.85 – 107.50 zone may further strengthen the negative outlook and anticipate possible withdrawal towards the 104.72 level tested on January 03. Otherwise, it may want to approach the 109,12 – 109,70 region with in-trend responses. When the latest movements are followed, the expectation of a reaction towards the relevant region is on the agenda.
Alternative Scenario: In order to end the negative expectations for USDJPY parity and the positive outlook to be in the forefront, permanent movements over the 109,12 – 109,70 zone are needed. In case of a trend change, a positive outlook can be followed towards 110,88 and 111,49 barrier, especially 110,23. In such pricing behavior, permanent movements over the region of 111,49 – 112,22 may wish to provide confirmation in addition to the current return.
Pivot: 109,12 – 109,70
Support: 107,85 – 107,50 – 106,75 – 106,00
Resistance: 108,58 – 109,12 – 109,70 – 110,23