In the last period, we observed that the weak euro / strong yen theme was at the forefront. EURJPY parity has created a more ambitious profile in the negative pricing behavior, especially since May 23. The Dollar Index’s strengthening trend at this stage allowed the euro to record a weaker profile and strengthen its negative expectations for the EURJPY parity. In this direction, the rally, which started at 123.00, continued until 121.17.
Main Scenario: If the EURJPY continues to remain below the 122,06 barrier, the top of the downtrend, it may want to continue its trend expectations. With this in mind, it can be traced back to 120,700 and 120,300 support points, including 121,00. In particular, movements below 121,350 may allow us to see that the negative outlook is getting stronger and that the idea of reaction is weak. Otherwise, the on-line reactions may occupy the agenda. In this process, the possible response levels before 122,06 were recorded as 121,35 and 121,67.
Alternative Scenario: For the end of the negative trend outlook for the EURJPY parity, the region 122,06 should be crossed. In case of a trend change, a positive outlook can be followed towards 122.67 and 123.00 barriers, in particular 122.33, and in case of such a change, the exit to the resistance level of 125.23 on May 01, 2019 may accelerate.
Support: 121,00 – 120,70 – 120,30
Resistance: 121,35 – 121,67 – 122,06